Model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of oral antivirals against SARS-CoV-2 in Korea.

OBJECTIVES: Many countries have authorized the emergency use of oral antiviral agents for patients with mild-to-moderate cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We assessed the cost-effectiveness of these agents for reducing the number of severe COVID-19 cases and the burden on Korea's medical system. METHODS: Using an existing model, we estimated the number of people who would require hospital/intensive care unit (ICU) admission in Korea in 2022. The treatment scenarios included (1) all adult patients, (2) elderly patients only, and (3) adult patients with underlying diseases only, compared to standard care. Based on the current health system capacity, we calculated the incremental costs per severe case averted and hospital admission for each scenario. RESULTS: We estimated that 236,510 COVID-19 patients would require hospital/ICU admission in 2022 with standard care only. Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (87% efficacy) was predicted to reduce this number by 80%, 24%, and 17% when targeting all adults, adults with underlying diseases, and elderly patients (25, 8, and 4%, respectively, for molnupiravir, with 30% efficacy). Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir use is likely to be cost-effective, with predicted costs of US$8,878, US$8,964, and US$1,454, per severe patient averted for the target groups listed above, respectively, while molnupiravir is likely to be less cost-effective, with costs of US$28,492, US$29,575, and US$7,915, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In Korea, oral treatment using nirmatrelvir/ritonavir for symptomatic COVID-19 patients targeting elderly patients would be highly cost-effective and would substantially reduce the demand for hospital admission to below the capacity of the health system if targeted to all adult patients instead of standard care.

Relationship Between Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination Rates and Rare But Potentially Fatal Adverse Events: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of Western Countries.

BACKGROUND: Owing to limited experience with the new vaccine platforms, discussion of vaccine safety is inevitable. However, media coverage of adverse events of special interest could influence the vaccination rate; thus, evaluating the outcomes of adverse events of special interest influencing vaccine administration is crucial. METHODS: We conducted regression discontinuity in time analysis to calculate the local average treatment effect (LATE) using datasets from Our World in Data and Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. For the United States, the United Kingdom, and Europe, the cutoff points were April 23rd and June 23rd, April 7th, and the 14th week of 2021, respectively. RESULTS: The LATE of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) meeting held on April 23rd was -0.249 for all vaccines, -0.133 (-0.189 to -0.076) for Pfizer, -0.064 (-0.115 to -0.012) for Moderna, and -0.038 (-0.047 to -0.030) for Johnson & Johnson. Discontinuities were observed for all three types of vaccines in the United States. The June 23rd meeting of the ACIP (mRNA vaccines and myocarditis) did not convene any discontinuities. Furthermore, there was no significant drop in the weekly average vaccination rates in Europe following the European Medicines Agency (EMA) statement on April 7th. Conversely, there was a significant drop in the first-dose vaccination rates in the United Kingdom related to the EMA report. The first-dose vaccination rate for all vaccines changed by -0.104 (-0.176 to -0.032). CONCLUSION: Although monitoring and reporting of adverse events of special interest are important, a careful approach towards public announcements is warranted.

Model-informed COVID-19 exit strategy with projections of SARS-CoV-2 infections generated by variants in the Republic of Korea.

BACKGROUND: With the prompt administration of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, highly vaccinated countries have begun to lift their stringent control measures. However, considering the spread of highly transmissible new variants, resuming socio-economic activities may lead to the resurgence of incidence, particularly in nations with a low proportion of individuals who have natural immunity. Here, we aimed to quantitatively assess an optimal COVID-19 exit strategy in the Republic of Korea, where only a small number of cumulative incidences have been recorded as of September 2021, comparing epidemiological outcomes via scenario analysis. METHODS: A discrete-time deterministic compartmental model structured by age group was used, accounting for the variant-specific transmission dynamics and the currently planned nationwide vaccination. All parameters were calibrated using comprehensive empirical data obtained from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. RESULTS: Our projection suggests that tapering the level of social distancing countermeasures to the minimum level from November 2021 can efficiently suppress a resurgence of incidence given the currently planned nationwide vaccine roll-out. In addition, considering the spread of the Delta variant, our model suggested that gradual easing of countermeasures for more than 4 months can efficiently withstand the prevalence of severe COVID-19 cases until the end of 2022. CONCLUSIONS: Our model-based projections provide evidence-based guidance for an exit strategy that allows society to resume normal life while sustaining the suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic in countries where the spread of COVID-19 has been well controlled.

Optimal Social Distancing Policy for COVID-19 Control in Korea: A Model-Based Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Since March 2020, when coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic, many countries have applied unprecedented restrictive measures to contain the spread of the virus. This study aimed to explore the optimal social distancing policy for COVID-19 control in South Korea to safely reopen the society. METHODS: We developed an age-specific, deterministic compartment epidemic model to examine the COVID-19 control decision-making process, including the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) between 1 July 2021 and 30 December 2022. The model consists of the natural history of COVID-19, testing performance, vaccinations, and social distancing enforcement measures to detect and control SARS-CoV-2. We modelled potential intervention scenarios with three distinct components: 1) social distancing duration and level; 2) testing intensity; and 3) vaccination uptake rate. The primary and secondary outcomes were COVID-19 incidence and prevalence of severe patients requiring intensive care unit (ICU) care. RESULTS: Four (or more) months of social distancing (that can reduce 40-60% transmission) may mitigate epidemic resurgence and ICU demand in the future and keep the cases below the capacity limit if the testing intensity and vaccination rate remain constant or increase by 20% (with respect to the current level). In contrast, two months of strict social distancing enforcement may also successfully mitigate future epidemic surge and ICU demand as long as testing intensity and vaccination rates are increased by 20%. CONCLUSION: In South Korea, given the relatively high vaccination coverage and low incidence, four or more months of social distancing enforcement can effectively mitigate epidemic resurgence after lifting the social distancing measures. In addition, increasing the testing intensity and vaccination rate may help reduce necessary social distancing levels and duration to prevent a future epidemic resurgence and mitigate social and economic damage.

Predicted and Observed Incidence of Thromboembolic Events among Koreans Vaccinated with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Vaccine.

We used the nationwide claims database to calculate the incidence of thrombotic events and predict their overall 2-week incidence. From 2006 to 2020, the incidence of deep vein thrombosis (DVT), pulmonary embolism (PE), and disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) tended to increase. Unlike intracranial venous thrombosis (ICVT) and intracranial thrombophlebitis (ICTP), which showed no age difference, other venous embolism, and thrombosis (OVET), DIC, DVT, and PE were significantly more common in over 65 years. The overall 2-week incidence of ICVT was 0.21/1,000,000 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.11-0.32). ICTP, OVET, DIC, DVT and PE were expected to occur in 0.08 (95% CI, 0.02-0.14), 7.66 (95% CI, 6.08-9.23), 5.95 (95% CI, 4.88-7.03), 13.28 (95% CI, 11.92-14.64), 14.09 (95% CI, 12.80-15.37) per 1,000,000, respectively. To date, of 8,548,231 patients vaccinated with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 in Korea, two had confirmed thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome within 2 weeks. The observed incidence of ICVT after vaccination was 0.23/1,000,000.

Estimating Baseline Incidence of Conditions Potentially Associated with Vaccine Adverse Events: a Call for Surveillance System Using the Korean National Health Insurance Claims Data.

BACKGROUND: Vaccines against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are raising concerns about vaccine safety, particularly in the context of large-scale immunization. To address public concerns, we measured the baseline incidence rates of major conditions potentially related to vaccine-related adverse events (VAEs). We aimed to provide a basis for evaluating VAEs and verifying causality. METHODS: Conditions of interest were selected from the US Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System Table of Reportable Events and a recent report from a European consortium on vaccine surveillance. We used the National Health Insurance Service database in Korea to identify the monthly numbers of cases with these conditions. Data from January 2006 to June 2020 were included. Prediction models were constructed from the observed incidences using an autoregressive integrated moving average. We predicted the incidences of the conditions and their respective 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for January through December 2021. In addition, subgroup analysis for the expected vaccination population was conducted. RESULTS: Mean values (95% CIs) of the predicted monthly incidence of vasovagal syncope, anaphylaxis, brachial neuritis, acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, Bell's palsy, Guillain-Barré syndrome, encephalopathy, optic neuritis, transverse myelitis, immune thrombocytopenic purpura, and systemic lupus erythematosus in 2021 were 23.89 (19.81-27.98), 4.72 (3.83-5.61), 57.62 (51.37-63.88), 0.03 (0.01-0.04), 8.58 (7.90-9.26), 0.26 (0.18-0.34), 2.13 (1.42-2.83), 1.65 (1.17-2.13), 0.19 (0.14-0.25), 0.75 (0.61-0.90), and 3.40 (2.79-4.01) cases per 100,000 respectively. The majority of the conditions showed an increasing trend with seasonal variations in their incidences. CONCLUSION: We measured the incidence of a total of 11 conditions that could potentially be associated with VAEs to predict the monthly incidence in 2021. In Korea, conditions that could potentially be related to VAEs occur on a regular basis, and an increasing trend is observed with seasonality.

Overweight and Obesity are Risk Factors for Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Propensity Score-Matched Case-Control Study.

Although obesity is a risk factor for infection, whether it has the same effect on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) need confirming. We conducted a retrospective propensity score matched case-control study to examine the association between obesity and COVID-19. This study included data from the Nationwide COVID-19 Registry and the Biennial Health Checkup database, until May 30, 2020. We identified 2,231 patients with confirmed COVID-19 and 10-fold-matched negative test controls. Overweight (body mass index [BMI] 23 to 24.9 kg/m2; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1.03 to 1.30) and class 1 obesity (BMI 25 to 29.9 kg/m2; aOR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.42) had significantly increased COVID-19 risk, while classes 2 and 3 obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) showed similar but non-significant trend. Females and those <50 years had more robust association pattern. Overweight and obesity are possible risk factors of COVID-19.